Zillow Zestimates, A Good Starting Point

Informed people are happy people...provided the information is accurate. Real estate buyers have loads more information to process today and the value of that info is directly related to how much effort is put into the processing. Zillow.com is one source of the new information home owners and buyers are looking to for real estate values. I'm a fan of Zillow for it's value as a starting point in the real estate pricing conversation.

Zillow calls their value estimate a Zestimate. It's  a number arrived at using automated software designed to be neutral and unbiased. The Zestimate may factor in too much information, such as too broad of an area crossing neighborhood and school district boundaries. On the other side Zillow may have considered too little information, such as overlooking location in a neighborhood, or improvements.

Zillow does a terrific job of cautioning the user of their site and disclosing their limitations on accuracy. For example, go to Zillow.com and scroll down to the bottom of the page and click on: Zestimate. Selecting Wisconsin, and then Dane County, I see they disclose that their data includes 165,400 property sales. They claim their Zestimate is within 5% of the sale price for 42.5% of the properties. However, they are within 20% on 84% of the properties. If your goal is to not overpay for a property or to not leave too much on the table when pricing to sell, you will want to fine tune that 20% in Dane County where ten and twenty percent can mean twenty and forty thousand dollars.

Realtors  and appraisers who know the market area and know how to make adjustments for the differences of value between neighborhoods, streets, homes, and amenities can get the price zeroed in the way a telescope brings into focus the fine details.



This is Zillow's explanation (copied from their web site) of a Zestimate:

The Zestimate® (pronounced ZEST-ti-met, rhymes with estimate) home valuation is Zillow's estimated market value, computed using a proprietary formula. It is not an appraisal. It is a starting point in determining a home's value. The Zestimate is calculated from public and user submitted data; your real estate agent or appraiser physically inspects the home and takes special features, location, and market conditions into account.  We encourage buyers, sellers, and homeowners to supplement Zillow's information by doing other research such as:

• Getting a comparative market analysis (CMA) from a real estate agent
• Getting an appraisal from a professional appraiser
• Visiting the house (whenever possible)

Spring Market 2013 is Underway and It's Still Deep Winter

I've always known the spring real estate market to start in Madison on the first day of business after New Year's Day. That's when people who are thinking of selling start to ask about making plans to be on the market in March and when people who want to buy start planning to look at homes in February. The eagerness of people this year is surprising---buyers are fast out of the gate and way ahead of the sellers.

A recent report on homes for sale showed the inventory of available homes is down all over Dane County and December sales were higher than previous years. I know that's carrying over into January. Buyers I'm working with are having a tough time finding homes in some of the historically higher demand neighborhoods. The homes that have lingered on the market are getting offers finally--not close to the original asking price, but with price reductions and some concessions, there are buyers who don't want to wait for the higher priced spring market homes to come on.

The best prepared buyers will have the best chance of getting their offers accepted this year. Sellers want security and price in the hot markets. For security give the seller an offer with a rock solid pre-approval letter. No wishy washy language such as "appear to be qualified" or "information not yet verified" will cut it.  If the owner is asking $200,000 and you are approved to buy up to $250,000 tell the owner. Hold nothing back. Let them know you are WELL qualified, not just getting by. If you are in competition, be aggressive with giving the owner what they want--peace of mind. Sure they want price too. But there you are wise to be careful. Make sure that the price you are willing to pay is verifiable. If there is no evidence to support the asking price and you have to offer that price to get your offer accepted, make sure to include an appraisal contingency. That might give you the ability to open up negotiations on price.

Owners might be smart to move up their time frame this year. March is typically a key date for placing homes on the market. With as much demand as we are seeing this spring (winter) I think February could give you an advantage. Buyer numbers are up, inventory is down, and inventory will rise in March---looks like February is a gap month favoring owners of well priced, well conditioned homes.